How's the Market?

If I were organized enough, I would come up with a repeating theme like "Graph Geek Monday". I'm not that organized, and my schedule is not predictable enough to ensure time to make graphs every Monday. I do have some cool graphs to look at THIS Monday, however. The graphs below demonstrate the big trend I have been seeing for months: the lower end of the single family residential market is relatively healthy (at least when you compare it with the high end). By "lower end" I mean up to $650,000. Here are 2 graphs: one showing Sold, Pending and Active listings in ALL price ranges from October 2007 through December 2008.








The second graph shows the same information for the Bainbridge market, but only up to $649,999.




What strikes me in both of these graphs is the number of sales (or lack of sales) compared to the available inventory. There is a measure the industry uses to determine the relative health of a real estate market. It is the number of months of inventory. Again, if you slice it up by price sector, you see a different, healthier, market under $650,000. In a neutral market (no big buyer or seller advantage), there will be between 4 and 6 months of inventory. Below 4 months of available inventory equates to a Seller's Market, and greater than 6 months inventory translates to a Buyer's Market. With about 16 month's worth of inventory across our market for all price levels, it is one heck of a buyer's market.

# Month's Inventory, All Price Ranges(Single Family Residences)

The market under $650,000 (from the data in the graph below) shows 6.7 months of available inventory in December 2008. It will be interesting to see how things play out. I wouldn't call it a neutral market by any means. We don't see sellers slashing prices in this segment to get a sale, but from the trenches I am seeing some real negotiating at several steps in the process.

# Month's Inventory, Under $650,000 (Single Family Residences)

A final note on the sales pace for the year thus far, since the data in the graphics only goes through the end of December 2008. We have had 18 closings thus far this year. At this time last year there were 14. Good news? A trend? We hope, but it is way too early to say. I'll report back on the pace of the market from time to time through the year.