Friday Stats

Here are a few stats I regularly look at:

• 220 single family homes listed for sale on BI in the "active" category
• # houses sold to date down 46% from same time period last year
• Median sale price in 2008 is $603,750 (down 11% from last year)
• Median days on market (time from listing to pending sale) is 71, up 6% from last year
• 30-year fixed rate for a conforming loan (up to $417K) is 5.875%, same as this time in 2007

What does this mean? First, inventory is the lowest it has been since February 2008. That's not surprising, because we are entering the holiday season and this is a typical time for people to take homes off the market to give the listing, and maybe themselves, a rest.

There may be other factors at play, however. For months the sales volume has been hovering around 50% of sales volume last year. Now it is at 46%. Every bit counts.

New Construction - New construction homes deserve some special attention as to there effect on market statistics. While new houses represent 23% of active listings, they represented just 11% of sales in the second half of this year so far. And, new houses actively listed have, on average, been on the market 46% longer than re-sale active listings.

Of note for new construction is the discounting that has happened to reach a sale. Of the 9 new construction houses that have sold since July 1st, on average builders have discounted the price 20% from the original list price. Ouch. This is in a market where the average resale house (non-new construction) sold for just 6% less than listed price.

There are several reasons for the discounting... Builders with too much inventory need to move houses. The new construction price point is a good deal higher than the average re-sale property; with jumbo loans so much more expensive these days, people in the jumbo category need some real price incentive to make a purchase. A hosue that started as a presale was in an entirely different real estate market than when the final product sold.

Do I sound negative? Not my intention by any means. There are bright spots in the market: first time home buyers are getting in at prices we never expected to see again, buyers are negotiating hard and feel like they are getting value, and investors ears are perking up. At least things aren't down 40% like the stock market. 15-20% down in the housing market is starting to look good these days.

Have a great weekend.