Bright Spot in the Market

I started to read an article online in the Seattle Times real estate section that started off pretty grim - until it got to the part about Seattle's housing market. Seattle, the article states, continues to be the bright spot in real estate.

The economist referenced in the piece, Lawrence Yun, believed that Seattle will continue as a "bright spot" while the national market will bottom out his quarter and begin to rebound in mid-2008. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004012642_realtor14.html.

Getting back to specifics about Bainbridge, I just scanned the MLS to see that just 9 houses and 2 condos have gone under contract on Bainbridge in November. While the 2007 market is still on pace with sales in 2006 it will be interesting to see where we end up for the year. Here are some stats:

Year-to-Date % Change through Nov. 15th, 2007 compared to 2006

• # Sales, Single Family Homes: -4.4%
• Median Sale Price, Single Family Homes: +4.7%
• Total $ Volume, Single Family Homes: +6.6%
• # Sales, Condominiums: -8.8%
• Median Sale Price, Condominiums: +54%
• Total $ Volume, Condominiums: +26%

The condo market numbers are striking. The median sale price in 2007 was up more than 50% of 2006. So, while volume of sales is slightly down in both the condo and single family market, price appreciation is healthy as is overall volume.

Wind Shift?

Market activity has picked up in the past couple of weeks. The first half of October (10/1 to 10/15) was dead slow, with two single family houses going under contract, one of which is contingent on the sale of the buyer's home. Two condos went into contract oe of which is also a contingent sale.

The second half of October was a different story. Seven houses and four condos went into contract, a 600% increase in the single family residential market and a 100% increase in the condo market. While the numbers over the last 2 weeks of October still don't make for a blazing hot real estate market it does make me wonder if it's a fluke or if there has been a real wind shift. Only time will tell...

Bainbridge RE Blog/Inaugural Post

Why a blog about real estate on Bainbridge Island? For most people (me included) their single largest investment is in the roof over their heads. The real estate market is a difficult thing to get a handle on, though, and I hope this blog can be helpful.

As I write this first post, we have experienced so many consecutive years of real estate appreciation and growth that the current changing tide is unsettling. You can't open a newspaper or turn on the radio or TV without being bombarded by the news that nationally real estate is in trouble. What does that mean for you if you own (or hope to own) property on Bainbridge Island? Are you also on a sinking ship?

Let's take a look at the numbers. Have I mentioned I am a numbers junky? I have a master's degree in quantitative ecology - translated, that means I learned how to use math to address environmental issues. No one would put themselves through the insanely difficult master's program I went through unless they really loved numbers - I'll try to use them to make point, not bore people to tears, in my postings. So, here are some statistics related to single family residential properties...

• Median Sale Price is UP from 2006 to 2007, looking at year-to-date data ($661,000 for 2006, $680,000 for 2007)
• Number of sales is UP slightly , 4.7%, over 2006 year-to-date
• Inventory (available listings) is up 15.6% compared to this time in 2006
• The number of properties that are tied up in contracts between buyers and sellers is down 58.9% compared to the same period last year

The stats don't look so bad when taken as a whole. To date median price is up and sales are good compared to last year. There is a little more to choose from for buyers. That's the good news.

The not-so-good news is in the number of properties in contractual agreement. To me, this is the number to watch in the coming months. It tells me whether buyers are getting off the fence and just how much power they have in the current market (at the moment, a lot - it's clearly a buyer's market). For sellers that stat is a little daunting. If your house is on the market, what does that stat translate to for you in terms of getting your house sold, and if you are thinking about selling is now the right time?

I'll check back in on these stats in a month or so, and see how things have changed.